Businesses looking to increase foreign trade might
concentrate on emerging economies, the chief economist of the
Royal Bank of Scotland Financial Markets said Thursday.
Demographic shifts and stronger financial institutions in
the emerging economies - as opposed to the industrialized
countries - are priming those nations for greater economic
growth in the coming decades, Ram Bhagavatula told about 200
people at the 25th annual Maine International Trade Day on
Wednesday.
Bhagavatula said that birthrates in industrialized
countries are continuing to fall, while they remain strong in
emerging countries in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South
America. The rates are expected to slow in those countries as
infant mortality falls and economic conditions improve, but
they are still likely to be high enough to continue to shift
most of the world's population growth away from industrialized
countries, he said.
And that will make those countries stronger markets, he
said.
Overall, Bhagavatula predicted the rest of the century will
be characterized by healthy economic growth internationally,
with more of the growth occurring outside of industrialized
countries.
Economic integration - characterized by increased
international trade and more foreign investments - will
continue, he said, and exports from emerging economies will
grow as a share of total trade.
The growth of exports from Maine continued to outstrip the
growth in the country as a whole during the first five years
of the decade, Richard Coyle, the president of the Maine
International Trade Center, said in summarizing the state's
international trade status. Coyle said companies in Maine
exported a record $2.43 billion worth of goods last year,
trade that supported about 25,000 jobs in the state.
Exports grew 36.7 percent from 2000, he said, compared to
an increase of 4.8 percent in total U.S. export growth during
the same period, Coyle said. Maine ranked ninth among the
states in export growth from 2000 to 2004, he said.
Even taking out semiconductors, pulp and paper products -
which account for about $1 billion worth of Maine goods
shipped outside the United States - exports still rose 14.7
percent during the five-year period, compared to growth in
exports nationally of 7 percent with those goods removed.
Canada remained Maine's largest international trading
partner, Coyle said, followed by Malaysia, and Brazil vaulted
to third place last year. The rankings were skewed, he noted,
by the completion of two oil rigs that were destined for
Brazil, which is normally not one of the top trading partners
with Maine.
Singapore and China rounded out the top five destination
countries for Maine exports last year.
Staff Writer Edward D. Murphy can be contacted at 791-6465
or at:
emurphy@pressherald.com
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